IMSL® Numerical Libraries Advanced Forecasting Techniques-Auto_ARIMA and Neural Networks


What is ARIMA?

The ARIMA model extends an ARMA model. It can model non-stationary time series using differencing and is leveraged in many areas of research. ARIMA is a powerful and flexible methodology where patterns of the data are identified, individual observation errors are identified and forecasts are generated.

Because of its power and flexibility, ARIMA is a complex technique and requires experience to use effectively. Results are often dependent on the user's level of expertise.

Auto_ARIMA Features

"Auto" refers to Automatic convenience and performance features. Automatic features within the Auto_ARIMA function include:

  • Estimates missing values within the data
    Automatic missing value method selectable from 4 alternative methods
  • Automatic outlier classification
    Identifies and incorporates the effects of outliers
  • Automatic seasonal adjustments
  • Automatic model selection from 6 alternative models
    Selects the best input parameters to an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model [ARIMA(p,d,q)]
  • Forecasts future values


Auto_Arima Outlier Example
Outliers Identified and Accounted For.
The Original Time Series is Black, with the Adjust Time Series,
Blue.
The Forecast for Two Years Worth of Data for Each Time Series Appear as Dashed Lines. Identified Outliers are Marked with an Asterisk and Labeled as to their Type.

IMSL Library Neural Network Implementation

The IMSL Library implementation is a multi-layer feed-forward neural network. It is well-suited for forecasting and classification in challenging data circumstances. With its advanced technology, it provides sophisticated control and flexibility to fine tune. You also get full control over network attributes such as number of layers, number of training epochs, and interconnections.  This also allows performance and forecasting accuracy to be tailored and fine-tuned to the application


Neural Network Forecasting Process

Neural Network vs. Traditional Regression / Time Series

Traditional Regression and Time Series Techniques
Neural Network Technique
Easily model any underlying data structures Can operate in varied circumstances
Mathematically Simple Can operate in tough data circumstances:
  • Noisy data
  • Short time series
  • Highly complex data; large degrees of freedom
Can run fast Training is computationally intensive
Provide diagnostics and insight into forecast mechanism Forecasting with trained network runs fast

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IMSL Numerical Libraries Overview and Benefits

IMSL Libraries – Analytics Areas of Functionalities

IMSL Libraries – Extensive Environment Support

IMSL Libraries:

IMSL Libraries for Forecasting and Data Mining

IMSL Libraries: Auto Arima and Neural Networks

IMSL Libraries for Finance

Documentation

White Papers

Application Areas



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