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The Forecasting Challenge
Forecasting needs arise in
a variety of fields and applications. Whether forecasting
future
expenses and revenues in corporate accounting, planning manufacturing production
time and
cost, predicting retail sales trends or deriving an optimal trading strategy
for securities,
analysts are faced with the challenge of managing increasingly large and complex
data sets.
These data sets can contain thousands of variables making it impractical to
use manual
forecasting processes, where each variable is handled individually. In order
to efficiently
leverage the vast amount of information that exists in a data set collectively,
an analyst
needs flexible and scalable forecasting solutions built around a robust, reliable
and accurate set of numerical algorithms.
Broad Range of Unique
Solutions
For over three decades, Visual
Numerics has been providing advanced forecasting
and data
mining solutions across a wide range of industries such as aerospace, government,
telecommunications, financial services and healthcare. Visual Numerics’ forecasting
solutions
combine technical expertise, decades of hands-on experience and powerful products
to
create the highest quality solutions possible for your visual data analysis
needs.
Visual Numerics Professional Services can help architect and develop the best
solution
for a customer’s specific situation, using the tools and techniques that
provide the optimal
solution. With expertise from desktop computing to distributed deployment,
Visual Numerics
consultants have the tools and know-how to solve problems at any level of complexity.
Visual Numerics’ IMSL® Numerical Libraries, available in C, C#
for .NET, Java™ and
Fortran, offer a wide range of technologies for use in forecasting, data mining
and advanced
predictive analysis. The IMSL Family of products contains the classic approaches
to
forecasting and predictive analysis including Regression analysis, Correlation
analysis,
Cluster analysis, Analysis of Variance, and Interpolation. The Libraries also
offer a number of other techniques that can be used in data mining and forecast
analysis such as covariance analysis,discriminant analysis, and a comprehensive
range of probability distributions and random number generators, which can
be used for Monte Carlo simulations as well as
other techniques.
In addition, Visual Numerics’ advanced visual data analysis solution,
PV-WAVE, works in
conjunction with the IMSL Libraries to provide sophisticated visualization
of forecasting
models. The PV-WAVE family of products offers a highly flexible and scalable
development
environment for 2-D, 3-D to nD visualization as well as a Java-based solution
for networked
applications and an advanced time series analysis solution. The combination
of these tools
and their integration with the IMSL Numerical Libraries provides unsurpassed
analytic and
visualization power to users for a wide range of forecasting techniques and
other scientific
and business applications.
Whether using the IMSL Libraries, PV-WAVE or other software solutions, Visual
Numerics’
team of Professional Services experts with decades of analytics experience
can help
customers research, define, and implement simple to complex forecasting applications.
Visual Numerics’ approach is to build solutions to customers’ specific
needs and data, versus
watering down data to fit into a standard format, which can compromise a customer’s
competitive advantage.
Advanced Forecasting and Data Mining Techniques
In addition to its classic forecasting tools, Visual
Numerics offers advanced forecasting
routines for time series analysis and its JMSL™ Numerical Library for
Java applications
includes Neural Network technology for sophisticated data mining. This Neural
Network
technology is also available in other programming languages through Visual
Numerics
Professional Services team.
Data Mining with Sophisticated Neural Network
Technology
Visual Numerics‘ Neural Network technology
adds to the broad selection of existing data
mining, modeling and prediction technologies available across the IMSL Family
of products.
These Neural Network algorithms are written in pure, native code to deliver
excellent
interoperability and ease of use. In addition, they can be used in conjunction
with a full suite
of mathematics and statistics capabilities available in the IMSL Family of
Numerical Libraries.
Visual Numerics’ Neural Networks forecasting
classes can help users discover relationships
and valuable information in vast amounts of data. Neural Networks provide a
high-flexibility
forecasting approach that delivers accurate forecasts under a variety of conditions
including
complex data systems, short time series, mixed categorical and continuous data,
noisy data
and large numbers of variables.
Visual Numerics’ Neural Network technology
features advanced data pre-processing to
simplify data mining preparation. These automatic pre-processing algorithms
are tailored to
work together with the Neural Network training engine to ensure optimal accuracy
and
performance, saving the user significant time over manual pre-processing. Unlike
other
neural network algorithms, the Neural Network training algorithm implementation
in the
IMSL Family allows the user control over parameters such as the number of training
epochs,
specific linkages within the network and activation functions. In addition,
there is no limit to
the number of layers and perceptions that can be used in the network. This
high degree of
flexibility and control is especially beneficial to analysts in the fields
of finance, business
analytics, bioinformatics and life sciences, where data sets can be extremely
large and
complex.
Teksouth: Advanced Predictive
Analytics Solution For More Accurate
Budget Forecasting
With demanding customers, Teksouth wanted to go beyond traditional forecasting
tools and
into true business intelligence in order to help customers more accurately
project and budget
spending changes.
In partnering with Teksouth to develop a Neural Network forecasting application,
Visual
Numerics tapped into its mathematical and statistical libraries. The Neural
Network
forecasting application extracts information from historical cost data, applying
the
information to forecast future costs. The analytic engine will have the flexibility
to prioritize
historical data and exclude anomalous data to improve its predictive capabilities.
The
solution applies knowledge gained form historical data to new problems, fine-tuning
its
forecasting accuracy even more over time.
"The flexibility and learning potential
of our neural net forecasting application has significant potential to help
government agencies and commercial businesses improve their predictive
analysis capabilities, moving well beyond traditional tools into high end business
intelligence."
-Larry Northington vice president
of strategic planning and corporate development for
Teksouth, and a retired u.s. air force major general.
Major European Grocery
Chain
In the very competitive
grocery industry, companies win or lose based on their
ability to predict customer shopping habits. A major
grocery chain in Europe that handles hundreds of thousands
of products was relying on historical average order
statistics to forecast product demand and inventory.
For some products, these statistics did not provide
forecasts of short term inventory requirements. They
wanted to do better. The grocery chain turned to Visual
Numerics Professional Services to help them use more
advanced statistical and data mining techniques for
predicting inventory requirements. They wanted to quickly
and accurately forecast the demand for each product
for each of their stores. Visual Numerics is delivering
a total data mining solution through its extensive
libraries, in-house data mining expertise, and development
resources, packaging this technology as a customized,
configurable and easy to use solution. Neural Net preprocessing,
forecasting and training engines will be provided for
integration into the customer’s current enterprise
.NET applications used by store managers.
The Auto_ARIMA Advanced Forecasting Routine for
Time Series Analysis
The IMSL Library function,
Auto_ARIMA, is an advanced forecasting routine for
time series
analysis with an ARIMA auto modeler. It is named using the term "auto," as
in automatic, since
calling the function requires very little, if any, pre-processing of the time
series data by the
user, unlike traditional methods.
ARIMA is a powerful and flexible methodology, but it is an extremely complex
technique and
requires a great deal of experience to be used effectively. The accuracy of
results heavily
depends on the analyst's level of expertise. With Auto_ARIMA, the complexity
of time series
analysis with ARIMA is greatly simplified due to its accurate and automatic
pre-processing of
data, allowing for faster time to analysis.
The Auto_ARIMA function is applicable for applications such as sales forecasting,
commodity
pricing (i.e. oil & gas), stock market predictions, semiconductor yield
analysis, and more.
Utilizing the expertise of Visual Numerics’ Professional Services Team,
an organization can
integrate Auto_ARIMA to create the optimal forecasting solution for their application.
Major European Telecommunications Company: Advanced Forecasting
For Cellular Network Optimization
For a major European mobile telecommunications company, planning and managing
their
cellular network is key to their success. Too little coverage and customers
experience service
problems; too much coverage and resources are wasted. Good planning means analyzing
the
massive amounts of usage data generated by the thousands of cellular towers
in the service
provider’s network. To track usage on their German mobile network, the
service provider already utilized sophisticated data analysis techniques, but
needed another level of refinement in order to better understand traffic patterns.
For a company owning thousands of cellular towers, all sending data to their
Network Operations Center, traditional statistical analysis techniques were
inadequate, labor intensive, expensive and cumbersome. The service provider
turned to Visual Numerics Professional Services group. To identify the outliers
and locate any seasonal trends in the data, Visual Numerics leveraged the ARIMA
algorithm from the IMSL Numerical Library. Visual Numerics’ software
engineers then automated the algorithm to tackle the customer’s faster
processing requirement. The state-of-the-art, expert-system Auto_ARIMA algorithm
allowed the service provider to produce more accurate forecasts faster than
before, giving them a significant advantage in the market.
Decades of Experience for Maximum Value
Visual Numerics’ IMSL
Numerical Libraries and PV-WAVE visual data analysis
tools have
been the cornerstone of high-performance and deep computing as well as predictive
analytics
applications in science, technical and business environments for well over
three decades.
These tools are regarded as the most sophisticated, flexible, scalable and
highly accessible
technology available for advanced analytics in the most important mainstream
programming
environments in use today.
Key Benefits
- Optimized and supported algorithms
- Unparalled scalabilty and interoperability
- Broad range of solutions for classic and advanced forecasting
problems
- Over three decades of expertise in the area of forecasting
- Expert Professional Services for custom algorithm and application
development
- Unmatched product support
- Seamless and simplified integration
- Time-tested technology for more accurate result
ROI Impact
- Reduced risk
- Faster
time to analysis
- Maximized programmer
productivity
- Improved efficiency
- Increased profitability
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